ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN MODEL ALTMAN Z-SCORE, ZMIJEWSKI, OHLSON, DAN GROVER DALAM MEMPREDIKSI FINANCIAL DISTRESS

Abstract

This research aimed to find out the feasibility and accuracy level of prediction model of financial distress in predicting financial distress at manufacturing companies which were stated in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2012-2016. The sampling analysis technique used purposive sampling and matched pair, so that there were 40 companies consist of 20 distress and 20 non-distress companies with 200 firm years. While, the data analysis technique used logistic regression analysis, overall model fit, omnibus test of model, Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit test, determination coefficient test ( Nagelkerke R Square) and wald test with using SPSS 16 (Statistical Product and Solulitons). The research result concluded that Altman model, Zmijewski model, Ohlson model and Grover model could be used to predicting financial distress of manufacturing companies. In addition, the model which had the highest accuracy level with 51,6% was Altman model. On the other hand the lowest accuracy level with 19,8% was Ohlson model.
Keywords: Altman, Zmijewski, Ohlson, Grover model, Financial Distress